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Bob Larson Fall Weather Outlook Pt 2
by Bob Larson, click here for bio

Program: Washington State Farm Bureau Report
Date: September 12, 2018

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I’m Bob Larson. El Nino or La Nina, warmer and drier or cooler and wetter, that’s the question on many people’s minds this time of year as we look for some level of relief from our summer season in the months ahead.

Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond says this year is no different …

BOND … “It looks like there’s a good chance, something like 70-75 % chance of having a weak to moderate El Nino this winter. And, that does stack the deck especially for us to be on the warm side of normal after the first of the year.”

But, Bond says we won’t know right away …

BOND … “There, I want to emphasize that its effects are kind of down the line rather than this fall. We’ve had El Nino years in the fall that have been kind of on the wet side and others on the dry side, and there’s not much indication one way or another.”

The problem, Bond says, is that this is the most difficult time of the year to accurately forecast our coming weather …

BOND … “We have less skill in our fall forecasts than any other time of year. And, it does look like it’s going to be probably on the warm side, but it’s hard to say whether it’s going to be wet or not.”

Bond says there’s always the exception, but El Nino years tend to have less snow pack in the mountains at the end of winter than normal.

He says in the shorter term, things look cool and wet but not overly wet, which is probably a good thing for the harvests in eastern Washington.

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