Protein up

A pair of Department of Agriculture reports are showing a continuing expansion of available protein as trade disputes make it more difficult to move products to overseas markets. The July 1 inventory report also gives us our first indication of the estimate for the 2018 calf crop which was estimated at 38.5 million head which was 2% above a year ago.”

Shagam says the recent cattle herd expansion is slowing but looks to continue. “If you go through all the calculations on the number of cattle outside feedlots we are about 1% above one year ago. This implies there are still relatively large numbers of animals which can still be placed. The fact that we have a 2018 estimated cash crop which is also up about 2%, implies that also as we take those calves forward a year to the time that they would normally be placed we are looking at the potential for continued increases in placements of cattle a year older which implies an expansion in beef supplies.” The expansion isn’t just evident in the beef sector. Butter stocks are up 8% from a year ago. Total chicken stocks are up 10% and there is a record amount of pork ribs in cold storage.