05/08/06 Experts prognosticate on Doha

Farm and Ranch May 8, 2006 Another deadline was missed recently in the Doha round of world trade negotiations where liberalization of agricultural trade is a major focus. So is the Doha round going to succeed or fail? Paul Drazek, a trade consultant and veteran of international trade negotiations, told farm broadcasters meeting in Washington D.C. last week, he thinks WTO Director General Pascal Lamy is going to have to put a paper on the table. Drazek: "It might happen in June or July. I am guessing more likely after the summer break so the countries don't have 30 days to try and shoot holes at it while it is dangling out there in the wind. But I think that is the only way it is going to happen. It will be almost a take it or leave kind of paper. Here are the terms for an agreement as the Director General sees them and then have countries with a very short amount of time negotiate from that text. If that happens then I think there is a chance for this to happen. But I will say that for the first time in my career there is the real possibility that this one could fail." But Drazek doesn't necessarily think the round will fail. Neither does John Baize another veteran of international trade talks, who thinks we will see a deal. Baise: "The main reason is because as you get to that precipice of not having one you begin to wonder what is on the other side and what would happen if we fail. We have never failed before. If we fail will we in fact start seeing the WTO unravel and go backwards? I think for that reason there will ultimately be some agreement." I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.