03/22/05 Possible hefty club wheat premiums?

Farm and Ranch March 22, 2005 Supply and demand estimates for club wheat developed by the Washington Wheat Commission foreshadow a situation similar to what occurred in 1999 and 2000 when club wheat premiums over soft white wheat topped a dollar a bushel. Currently those premiums are only about a nickel. Tom Mick Commission CEO, says based on seed sales, club wheat seedings last fall in the PNW are estimated at 231,400 acres, the fifth straight year of decline. Mick: "And with the dry weather it kind of looks like our club crop is going to be much less than we feel comfortable with. When we look at charts, and there are lot of factors that affect charts, but the last time we had this low of acreage, and it's a little soon to project yields but it looks like it is going to be reduced, we had substantial premiums. First of all we are worried about how our overseas market are going to react, those that buy western white, but producers need to watch this situation very closely and if there is an opportunity take advantage of it." The Wheat Commission projects club carryover at the end of this May at 5.9 million bushels. That's what they were in May of 1998-99. For the marketing year 2005-2006 the projection is for only 900-thousand bushels. That's less than the 1.3 million bushel carryover of 1999-2000. Mick says the export trade has been made aware of the Wheat Commission's estimates but so far there has been no change in the club premium. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.