02/10/05 USDA increases wheat export forecast

02/10/05 USDA increases wheat export forecast

Farm and Ranch February 10, 2005 In its February supply and demand report issued yesterday the USDA raised its forecast of U.S. wheat exports for this marketing year by 25 million bushels due to higher world imports. That dropped the forecast for U.S. wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels as well, down to 558 million bushels. That would still be an increase in U.S. wheat stocks from the previous year. The hard red wheats accounted for most of the USDA's increase in exports with soft white wheat exports going up five million bushels from last months forecasts. Exports for soft red winter wheat were reduced. USDA increased global wheat production, use and stocks slightly from last month. The world's record wheat crop has now grown to 622 million tons, 13 percent more than last year. While the U.S. numbers were friendly for wheat prices, Peter Georgantones of Investment Trading Services in Bloomington, Minnesota, says this is nothing to get excited about. Georgantones: "Does it make a bull market in wheat? No! I don't think you can have any kind of a bull market in wheat unless you have some awesome surprise demand from countries around the world coupled with crop reductions. Otherwise the wheat market has told us time and time again it needs no risk premium. They are always going to be able to secure some sort of wheat somewhere and it is a very hard and dismal market to trade when you don't have both those things to fall back on." Georgantones says the best thing wheat has going for it is that the large trading funds are so short wheat that you could see a 25-30 cent quick up turn in the market just to liquidate all the fund shorts. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.
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